International Rubber Daily Review: The Three Kingdoms Conference is Looking Forward Too High Rubber Prices Rise Back
The Tokyo morning RSS1908 contract opened at 204.4 yen, down 1.8 yen from the previous trading day. The TSR1909 contract opened at 172.8 yen, down 1.5 yen from the previous trading day. The USD/JPY exchange rate was around 111.75 in the morning.
On the background of the Tokyo rubber market on Monday, in the context of the specific plan for the reduction of exports in the major rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia, the price of the far-month contract once rose to 209.5 yen. After the opening of Tokyo in early trading, following the good trend of the previous day’s trading, it continued to attack the resistance of 210 yen. After the opening of the Shanghai market, the main contract was pushed near the first line of 13,000 yuan in the next speculative market. However, due to the recent reduction of exports in the rubber-producing countries or Sino-US trade negotiations, the optimism in the market is overheated, and there are few buying follow-ups at high prices. As the price of rubber in Shanghai fell back, the Tokyo RSS far-month contract also returned to the previous high of 206 yen at the close of the day. The continued decline of the Shanghai market after the close of the Tokyo market suppressed the trend of Tokyo’s late trading. With the profit of the short-term multi-strength, Tokyo’s far-month price finally closed near 204 yen. The optimistic forecast of Sino-US trade negotiations has dominated the recent rise in commodity prices, but the overheated market sentiment has made it easier for prices to fall back after the material.
In terms of spot, the March FOB price of No. 3 tobacco on March 4 was near 54.47 baht, up 1.25 baht from the previous trading day. The No. 20 standard rubber FOB price was around 48.21 baht, up 0.78 baht from the previous trading day. The USS spot price was around 47 baht, up 0.5 baht from the previous trading day.
Technically, the Tokyo RSS far-month price has encountered strong resistance at 210 yen. In the medium term, according to the equilibrium theory of one-eye equilibrium, the resistance level is directly at 210 yen after the market rebounded from the end of January and early February. At the same time, the baseline line around 192 yen also shows that the current market price deviates farther, and the pressure at the high position is heavier. In the short term, there may be a callback near 198 yen, which may coincide with the completion of the Sino-US trade agreement at the end of March. Short-term trading operations should not be excessively high, and the medium-term trade agreement can be short-selled after the dust settles.
The spread between the 1908 month contract and the Shanghai 1905 month contract (Tokyo-Shanghai) at the close of Tokyo on March 4 was -47 USD/ton.